Demographic perspectives on Saudi Arabia's development.

Demographic movements likely to be taking place in Saudi Arabia were hypothesized on the basis of general knowledge. The discussion reports on population size, general Arab demographic patterns, general determinants of fertility, Arab fertility patterns, Saudi fertility patterns, mortality in general, mortality in the Middle East, mortality in Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabian population growth, immigration, the changing composition of the work force, and third plan targets. Some doubt exists as to the size of Saudi Arabia's population, but there is little question that the total is growing rapidly. This expansion is taking place through stepped up immigration and a relatively high natural growth of indigenous Saudis, but statistics on population size, structure, and on the number of births and deaths leaves the magnitude of a number of important demographic trends in doubt. Yet, considerable evidence exists that several of the Arab countries in the region with fairly good demographic data are likely to have similar demographic patterns. In depth analysis of the demographic dynamics of these countries, particularly Jordan and Kuwait, identified several common elements bearing on several key parameters. Using what Saudi data is available and making comparisons with these neighboring countries, one can, based on expected levels of birth and death rates, indirectly infer the natural growth of Saudi Arabia's population. With several notable exceptions, Saudi Arabia's demographic patterns show a marked similarity to those experienced in the region as a whole. The average rate of population growth in both Saudi Arabia and the Arab region is about 3% a year and in both instances fertility rates are high. The demographic structure of these countries is characterized by the youthfulness of the population. In most of the Arab countries, the population aged 15 years or under accounts for over 48% of the population. The rate of the economically active population is low, ranging from 22% to 32% of the total population, with the female participation rate varying from 3.5% to 18.5%. In the nonagricultural sector, the average activity rate of women over the age of 15 usually does not exceed 6%. Arab countries are also characterized by their high infant mortality rates. In 1975 these rates ranged from 60 to 200/1000. Illiteracy rates for the group, as a whole, are also high, and they are significantly higher among women than among men. A multipurpose survey conducted in Saudi Arabia during 1976 and 1977 reported a live birthrate of 54.2/1000. This is somewhat above the UN figure of 49.5 for the country and over the average for Arab countries of 46.6 for 1975. The mortality rate for the Saudi population is 14.1/1000. If one accepts the birth and death rates indicated by the multipurpose survey, the population is growing at a national rate of 3% or more per year.